I get asked this every election: should we wait until after to buy or sell? Wanting to pause is normal. Nobody wants to make a big move while the TV is yelling at them. Here’s what the numbers actually show.
Election years do see a small dip
Researchers studying governor races from 1982 to 2018 found a small dip in home sales and price growth in election years, and the dip was bigger when the race was close. Most of that is people hitting pause, not the market breaking. Ohio has an open governor’s seat this year, so expect a little of that here too.
Rates don’t follow the ballot
In the last 10 midterm years, the 30-year mortgage rate fell between August and the end of November in 6 of them and rose in 4. That’s a coin flip. Inflation, bond yields and the Fed move rates. The 30-year average is 7.24% (Freddie Mac, Oct 29), down from 7.40% a few weeks ago.
So what should you do?
Vote, then make your house decision on your timeline, not the news cycle’s. If you’re in Dayton or the Miami Valley and want to talk through yours, reach out. I’m around.
Dakota Shannon, Dayton / Miami Valley Realtor since 2013.
Sources: Journal of Housing Economics 2023 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101952) and Freddie Mac PMMS archive (https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive).
Join The Discussion